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I agree with you that it's probably not gonna sell that well. However, the rail shooter genre hasn't had a massive resurgence the way that games like Metroid did between it's fourth and fifth games. Because of that, I don't think Dread us a good point of comparison here.Metroid dread sold well and prime 4 was dead before being born
If rail shooters were a commercially viable modern genre, then Crimson Dragon would have sold Xbox Ones. (lol)

I just default into assuming most Switch 2 games will be key cards because most Switch 2 games are on key cards. Not as much the first-party games, but still.